Postseason Probabilities
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In Out2026–27 Schedule
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In OutPreliminary forecast. Elo is the fast default; Enhanced preserves the detailed score and NBA-rules simulation. Each number comes from 5,000, 20,000, or 50,000 simulated seasons. Results appear progressively; dashes mean the model is still loading or could not run, not zero.
The six main columns are Playoffs, Division, #1 Seed, Conference finals, Finals, and Title. Expand a team for hidden columns, Top 6, Play-in participation, playoff Seeds 1–8, and Out. Play-in participation is not the same as qualifying for the playoffs.
The upper record includes accepted finals and your chosen winners. Projected records and probabilities respond to every pick. Picks are scenarios, not training evidence, and accepted finals alone update team strength.
The rule below the eighth team in each conference marks the size of the eventual playoff field. It follows the eighth row in whichever probability column you select. Six teams qualify directly; the play-in determines the last two places.
The default model rebuilds strength from historical winners and losers, then uses one balanced completion for the two unreleased Cup-era games and a seeded lottery for record ties. Its parameters were fixed after the original holdout had already been inspected, so its published evaluation is descriptive rather than a fresh holdout.
Enhanced draws scores, samples eight Cup-outcome-compatible completion policies, and applies the detailed NBA tiebreak procedures. Its frozen win probabilities passed their comparison gates, but one score-margin calibration bucket missed its limit by 0.156 points and its larger sample settings miss their runtime goals. A displayed 0, 100, <1, or >99 is always a finite simulation estimate.
Picking games. Choose either team to win; click it again to clear that pick. Clear picks removes all selections. Picks update the scenario record and rerun the preliminary forecast.
The saved ESPN slate contains 1,200 games: 80 per team. Each team has two additional regular-season games still to be determined around the NBA Cup. Unknown opponents are not selectable. The Cup championship does not count toward regular-season records.
Completed games are visible by default. Filter one or several teams, then use Done to close the selector. Today preserves those filters and jumps to the nearest matching date. The timeline loads earlier and later games in bounded chunks. Start times display in Eastern time; Today follows your local calendar date.
The snapshot interface supports quarter, clock, score, and validated final updates without reloading the page. No production score updater is active. Live scores never change records; accepted finals do, and remove picks for completed games.
NBA Forecast · 2026–27
Preliminary forecast
The NBA schedule, two-choice picker, team filters, fixed-size marks, responsive tables, expanded details, and identity-based scenario links use the MLB app as their starting point. The fast Elo worker and the detailed Enhanced worker both simulate the play-in, fixed playoff bracket, and NBA Finals.
Elo is the fast default. It uses historical wins and losses, a fixed balanced 82-game completion, and record-based lottery tiebreaks. Enhanced draws scores, samples Cup-outcome-compatible schedules, and applies detailed NBA tiebreaks. Generated games never enter the picker. Market remains unavailable until defensible real inputs exist.
Links include game identities, opponents, chosen winners, season, model, sample count, and seed. Filters and scroll position are not shared. Accepted results advance a scenario; future forecasts are exactly reproducible only with matching data, model, rules, and Cup-completion revisions.
Schedule data and team artwork were retrieved from ESPN. Full independent schedule reconciliation and source-use clearance remain open for the completed forecasting app. This project is not affiliated with the NBA, ESPN, or any team. Names and logos belong to their respective owners and identify the teams only. Current conference artwork is from Wikimedia Commons. Classic conference marks and team artwork are from SportsLogos.Net and Sports Logo History.
The small ✣ footer button swaps current and classic team and conference logos without changing picks, scroll position, or shared links. It resets on reload. This is a mixed-era collection: New Jersey Nets, Vancouver Grizzlies, and New Orleans Hornets represent franchise heritage. Chicago and Oklahoma City retain their long-running identities; Seattle is not relabeled as Oklahoma City.