Playoff Probabilities
Season — — 0 seasons simulated — pp at 95% Starting
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Season — — 0 seasons simulated — pp at 95% Starting
In OutNumbers are percentages. Darker blue means a higher chance. The line marks the seven most likely playoff qualifiers in each conference, based on current records and your picks. A place above it is a projection, not a clinched berth.
Playoffs: make the playoffs. Division: win the division. #1 Seed: earn a first-round bye. Conf: reach the Super Bowl. Title: win it. Click a team for each seed's chances.
0: never happened in this run. <1: under 1%. Rounded 100 isn't a guarantee. More samples reduce random variation, not model errors. ± measures that variation.
Arrows show the combined percentage-point change from all your picks.
Choose a winner or tie to try a result. Click it again to undo it, or use Clear picks to reset everything. Unpicked games are simulated.
The small percentages are the model's pregame chances. They don't change with your picks. Live scores refresh about once a minute around active games, but the forecast does not calculate in-game win chances.
Final scores lock the game and update records and ratings. An open page refreshes when it accepts a new final, keeping your remaining picks. Italic records include your hypothetical results.
@ marks the home team; vs marks a neutral site. TBD means the kickoff is still to be announced.
Pick game results and see how they change each team's chances of reaching the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
The app plays out thousands of possible seasons using your picks and team ratings based on past results. Finished games count as actual results; unpicked games are simulated.
This is an experimental forecast. The ratings beat a 50/50 guess in a historical game test, but the playoff and title odds have not been tested for accuracy. Injuries, quarterbacks and roster changes aren't included. Tied standings are settled randomly instead of using NFL tiebreakers. Team strength stays fixed within each simulated season.
Elo estimates team strength from past scores. Market uses those same ratings with a different formula. It does not use betting odds.
Copy link saves your picks in a URL that others can open. The calculations run in your browser.
Schedule: NFL. Scores: ESPN. Historical results: nflverse.
The ratings use a saved set of 1999–2025 results and an Elo method adapted from FiveThirtyEight. Checked finals update them during this season.
Inspired by FiveThirtyEight's retired forecast. Not affiliated with FiveThirtyEight, ABC News or the NFL. Team and conference logos belong to their owners and are used for identification.